The Sudden Acceleration
This is not a seasonal uptick or post-fair halo effect. Instead, it is a decisive shift. Many top Patek Philippe watch models are up around 15% to 20%, depending on the reference.
It’s not just Patek prices that have gone up, but the whole secondary luxury watch market is seeing a change in pricing. For example, a Rolex Daytona Panda that used to trade for around AED 125,000 a couple of months ago now exchanges hands for no less than AED 135,000. That’s an 8% increase.
Besides that, even some AP models have seen an increase in price. However, it is limited to select models, especially the ones that were released not too long ago. While AP and Rolex have only gone up somewhere around 5-12%, its the watches from Patek Philippe that have seen a massive jump. Someone who could have bought an unworn 2025 model Patek Aquanaut 5167A for around AED 285,00-295,000 a few weeks ago now has to pay somewhere around AED 320,000 for the same piece.
We have also seen the price fluctuation happening on many of the Richard Mille watches. Its not like the demand for these pieces just doubled overnight. There are other various factors that are potentially making the prices fluctuate. Needless to say, the tariff shock from the US is expected to be one of the major reasons behind the price hike. However, one must note that the price change did not happen in just the last 2 months. Instead, the prices on these watches have been climbining slowly ever since the beginning of the year 2025.
What’s Making the Prices Rise?
Several factors are converging to drive this outsized performance. Each alone would have impact, but together they’ve created a near-perfect storm for price acceleration.
Tariff Shock and Supply Disruption
The 39% U.S. tariff on Swiss luxury goods jolted the market. Retailers have passed along higher costs, pushing many buyers who would normally purchase new into the secondary channel. Dealers front-loaded inventory before the tariff deadline, leading to a post-tariff shortage and rapid upward price pressure.
Rising Precious Metal Prices
With all precious metals like gold and platinum are all trending upward, models featuring precious components have seen their intrinsic values increase. This is bound to affect both retail and secondary market prices of watches built out of these precious metals.
Seasonal Production Slowdowns
It is being said that Swiss watch production traditionally slows in summer. When paired with heightened demand and tariff-related constraints, this limited output produces a dramatic supply imbalance that drives prices higher.
Rising Retail Pricing
On September 15, 2025, Patek announced the increase of retail prices by 15% in the U.S., due to a 39% tariff on Swiss imported goods. As the retail prices go up, the secondary market prices on these rather difficult to get watches are bound to increase.
Should You Be Worried?
No rally lasts forever. Even in an uptrend, there are caveats collectors should be mindful of. This includes the fact that gains remain concentrated in a handful of liquid, in-demand models. Also, the 15–30% rise is short-term data which means we are not sure how long is this going to sustain.
Apart from that, all the geopolitical reasons and the fluctuations in the strength of the USD currency have all been responsible for the fluctuation watch market.
What’s Next?
The short answer here would be that we don’t really know where the watch market will go from here. Whatever happens, watch dealers are less likely to suffer any issues with this as they are constantly buying and selling watches instead of holding them for a longer duration. Its the retail customers who will be taking a hit. Those on the waitlist for the Aquanaut 5167A at their dealer could have got the watch from retail for around $26,000, but will now have to pay closer to $30,000 due to the 15% increase in retail prices.
And if you are buying a watch from the secondary market, be ready to spend at least 15% extra on that piece you have been eyeing for the last couple of months.
